Wise bets for Apple TV+ games on August 19, 2022

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As always, Apple TV+ is hosting two baseball games tonight, and they’re good. We start with the Blue Jays continuing their series in New York against the Yankees at 7:00 PM ET, followed by the Rangers at the Twins at 8:00 PM ET. We’re going to go over two bets for each match you can follow while watching tonight.

With the offensive struggles the Yankees continue to endure, I like the Blue Jays to have the lead after five innings. They are starting Kevin Gausman, who has pitched his best baseball on the road this season. Through 64 innings away from the Rogers Centre, Gausman has a 1.83 ERA, a .252 wOBA and just two of the seven home runs he’s allowed. He has only faced the Yankees once this season, back on April 14 when he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed two runs on six hits and struck out nine. Despite being bad in his last outing against the Guardians (who came at home), I really like Gausman to keep this Yankees offense at bay to start this game.

It’s no secret that this Yankees offense has stumbled since the calendar turned to August. As a team, they are slashing .219/.297/.369 with just 56 runs scored this month, which ranks 25th in the Majors. Meanwhile, teams like the Nationals, Cubs, Angels and Pirates have scored more runs than the Yankees in that span. Gausman is also the hardest first time through the order, posting a 1.90 ERA with a .285 wOBA. I like the Jays to have the lead after the fifth inning ends.

When an offense is struggling, hit points are often part of the equation. That’s no different with the Yankees, who currently have a 25 percent strikeout rate in August. That’s the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball, trailing only the Tigers, Reds, Angels and Brewers. As I mentioned, Gausman faced this club in early April and racked up nine strikeouts in that game.

The Yankees have played 16 games in the month of August and are averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game. While 6.5 isn’t a number Gausman has topped many times this year, doing so in 10 of his 22 starts, I like the appeal of the +115 we’re getting against a struggling offense. With Gausman pitching his best baseball on the road this season, I think we can get at least seven strikeouts out of him tonight.

I like the Rangers’ team total of 3.5 runs tonight against Dylan Bundy. He’s one of the hardest pitchers to figure out, in my opinion. He has been better than advertised as he has a 4.76 ERA but also a 3.85 ERA. So, in other words, he’s been a little unlucky when he takes the mound. However, I like to handle the 3.5 runs for the Rangers.

If it was set at 4.5, I wouldn’t be interested in going there, but I think they have a good chance of making it to four. In his start against Texas on July 10, Bundy allowed four runs on six hits and two walks in five innings. The Rangers are just outside the top 10 MLB teams in runs scored during August, ranking 12th with 66. They are also slashing .254/.328/.381 as a club with a 105 wRC+ this month.

Where Bundy has really struggled this year is after passing the order for the first time. His 3.07 ERA and .284 wOBA the first time around look great, but after that, the wheels often come off. Second time through the order, Bundy has a 5.66 ERA and a .342 wOBA. I think the Rangers can take advantage of that and get over 3.5 runs tonight.

There’s nothing wrong with getting a full bases add-on that you really like for more money. That’s what we get tonight with Buxton vs. Martín Perez. To his credit, Perez does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground. When you’re inducing ground balls more than half the time (51.7 percent), it certainly limits the damage. However, Buxton is a different breed and has some stellar numbers against lefties. On the year, he carries a .393 wOBA with a .357 ISO and a 161 wRC+ against lefties. Those numbers remain nearly consistent at home against lefties, with a .347 wOBA, .348 ISO and 128 wRC+.

Going over 1.5 bases is something he’s done in 37 of the 89 games he’s played, good for 41.5 percent of his season. Before going 0-for-3 Wednesday against the Royals, Buxton had gone 1.5 bases in three straight games, collecting two hits in each. Regardless of where he hits tonight, whether it’s first or third in the order, he should have at least four shots to surpass that mark. Hitting the top of the order at +110 is a move worth making.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.

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